Thursday, January 20, 2011

Tonight's Money Supply Report

Tonight's money supply report comes with a revision in the factors the Federal Reserve takes into consideration when preparing a seasonally-adjusted number for M2.  From tonight's report:


The benchmark incorporates minor revisions to data 
reported in the weekly and quarterly deposit reports, 
and it takes account of deposit data from Call Reports 
for banks and thrift institutions that are not weekly 
or quarterly deposit reporters.  These revisions to 
deposit data start in 2007.  In  addition, this release 
incorporates data from Call Reports on the amount of 
small-denomination time deposits held in individual 
retirement accounts (IRAs) and Keogh accounts; related 
revisions to deposit data start in 2005.  The benchmark 
also incorporates revisions to data on retail and 
institutional money market mutual funds, including 
revisions to IRA and Keogh balances held at those funds.  
Revisions to data on money market mutual funds begin in 
2001.  This release also incorporates the receipt of 
historical information from other sources of data.

As a result, the current numbers being reported differ slightly from the numbers released in recent money supply reports.  However, the week-to-week trends remain the same.

The preliminary January 10th measure stood at $8.815 trillion.  Annualized M2 growth over the past 13 weeks was 5.3% vs. annualized growth of 5.1% and 3.4% for the past 26 and 52 weeks.

One result of the revisions to the methods used by the Federal Reserve to calculate seasonally-adjusted M2 is that money supply growth for the first half of 2010 was slightly higher with the newer approach, and money supply growth for the second half of 2010 was slightly lower.  However, what remains intact despite these revised methods of M2 calculation is that the trend in M2 growth has accelerated.

It's still bad news for U.S. Treasuries.

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